Future treasurer: navigating uncertainty and opportunity

The conversation opened with a macroeconomic perspective, courtesy of Opens in a new tabJames Knightley (Chief International Economist at ING Americas), touching on exchange rates, the strength of the dollar, tariffs, and geopolitical unrest. Yet, as Tibor observed, the group’s concerns quickly shifted from the global to the practical: “The red line was the same if you’re international or only have a national presence… everybody was trying to de-risk and they see the market was getting much more volatile.”

This heightened risk awareness is not just about headline events. As Carlos noted, “The level of risk assessment that needs to happen nowadays is much more enhanced than it was three to five years ago, because you’re dealing with several uncertainties—not only geopolitical, but also regulatory framework, especially for the energy clients in the group.”

A recurring theme was the dual role of liquidity. On one hand, companies are building larger liquidity buffers to weather volatility in commodity markets and supply chains. On the other, there’s a growing recognition that these buffers can also serve as “war chests” for opportunistic investments. As Tibor put it, “There was a small contradiction… we need the liquidity as a buffer to anticipate for volatilities… but I also want to be able to use it as a war chest when I see opportunities in the market.”

Carlos echoed this sentiment: “Companies probably tend to carry more liquidity than actually needed because… you do not decide when the markets are going to be open or not. If the conditions are benign… raise liquidity, because the cost of carry is minuscule compared to the security blanket it gives you.”

The group agreed that uncertainty is now the norm, not the exception. The “cheapest solution” is no longer always the most sustainable or resilient. Instead, continuity, quality, and availability are rising to the top of the agenda. “The awareness that the new normal is that the world is changing constantly… and the new normal is also that price isn’t the driver or shouldn’t be the driver, but that there’s other drivers now more important for these companies and their customers going forward,” Tibor reflected.

While the macro themes resonated across industries, the energy and commodity trading sectors brought unique perspectives. For energy clients, regulatory uncertainty and supply chain risks were front and center. For commodity traders, the focus was on diversification of liquidity sources—smaller players relying on banks, larger ones tapping capital markets, and established firms leveraging free cash flow.

The discussion also touched on the promise and limits of technology. AI was seen as a tool with “limitless opportunities,” but its practical impact remains modest for now—much like the early days of the internet. The consensus: digital transformation is essential, but the journey is just beginning.

The session closed with a sense of shared experience and cautious optimism. The advice? Recognize that volatility is here to stay, build resilience through liquidity and strategic flexibility, and stay alert for opportunities that arise from disruption. As Carlos summarized, “Any correction allows [companies] to take advantage of opportunities that might not otherwise come to the market… if you have the sufficient liquidity buffer to take advantage of those opportunities, then you are in a good position to actually be able to crystallize those opportunities at a discount.”

The “Future Treasure” conversation underscored that the most successful treasury leaders will be those who can balance prudence with agility—protecting their organizations against shocks, while remaining ready to act when opportunity knocks.