Navigating the new trade order

The Opens in a new tab2025 US tariff regime—marked by sweeping, sometimes unpredictable increases—has upended global trade. While the stated aim is to protect American interests and encourage domestic production, the reality is far more nuanced. As Caue Todeschini put it, “Tariff uncertainty is now a permanent feature of the landscape. Our clients are scenario-planning for everything from sudden cost spikes to retaliatory measures abroad.”

Recent policy moves have included a 10% blanket tariff on most imports, with even higher rates for countries with significant trade imbalances. China, for example, faced 125% tariffs on many goods, before the recent de-escalation while Canada and Mexico have seen baseline increases of 25%. Although some measures are temporarily paused, the threat of escalation—and the specter of global retaliation—remains.

The impact? According to both internal polling and client testimony, nearly 40% of US companies in the commodities sector have seen gross margins shrink, and over half have postponed investments or reduced headcount. Grace Garcia noted, “We’re seeing a fundamental rethink of sourcing, pricing, and risk management strategies. Clients are asking: how do we remain competitive when the rules of the game can change overnight?”

One of the most visible responses to tariff volatility has been the acceleration of onshoring. Houston, as highlighted by several client participants, is emerging as a prime beneficiary. Its port infrastructure, skilled workforce, and diversified trade relationships have made it a magnet for new manufacturing investments from global giants and commodity leaders alike.

“Some of the low-hanging fruits for onshoring have already been achieved, and that certainly helps companies to have a better control of their supply chains and reduce exposure to tariff shocks,” said Caue. “But the bigger question is whether companies will commit to more expensive, large-scale onshoring projects. Those involve significant capital and operational complexity, and it’s still unclear how far that trend will go.”

With tariffs raising the price of imported goods and adding compliance burdens, companies—especially those in commodities—are rethinking their entire supply chain architecture. The most resilient organizations, as described by client leaders, are those that:

• Diversify supplier bases across regions to avoid overexposure to any single market or tariff regime.
• Invest in digital supply chain tools for real-time monitoring and rapid response to policy changes.
• Adopt “just-in-case” inventory strategies, increasing warehouse demand and shifting away from the lean “just-in-time” models of the past.

As Grace Garcia observed, “Flexibility is the new competitive advantage. Companies that can pivot quickly—whether by shifting production, rerouting logistics, or adjusting pricing—are best positioned to weather the storm. We’re seeing clients move from just-in-time to just-in-case, building more resilience into their operations.”

The international implications of US tariff policy are profound. While some regions—like Southeast Asia—face steep new barriers, others (notably Europe and Mexico) are adapting by deepening trade ties and investing in local capacity. The net effect is a reconfiguration of global value chains, with direct US-China trade contracting and indirect flows rising through third countries.

For Houston and similar US hubs, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. Diversification of trading partners, robust logistics infrastructure, and a proactive approach to onshoring are helping to cushion the blow. Yet, as client leaders cautioned, the risks of policy whiplash, retaliatory tariffs, and global supply chain fragmentation remain very real.

As the session wrapped, Caue reflected, “The winners in this environment will be those who combine agility with strategic foresight. Tariffs and Opens in a new tabonshoring are not passing trends—they are structural shifts demanding a new playbook for US business.” Grace added, “Uncertainty is here to stay, but with the right strategies, US businesses can not only survive but thrive in the new global trade order.”