While pandemic shockwaves are now beginning to fade, the transport and logistics sector still appears to be experiencing the ripple effects of normalising consumer behaviour and prolonged capacity issues. In this outlook, our team examines what could be next for the sector in the second half of the year going into 2024
Normalisation in a different world
The transport and logistics sector will see growth of 4% in 2023 and 3% in 2024.
While the extremes of the Covid-19 pandemic supply shock have faded, the sector is still witnessing the ripple effects of normalisation in consumer behaviour and prolonged capacity issues. At the same time, the economy is slowing and industrial production is slumping.
The supply shock from the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine have also left their mark on various parts of the transport and logistics sector. Either long because of excess capacity after a historic boom (in container shipping) or short because of lagging deliveries of aircraft and capacity-absorbing rerouting because of sanctions (in shipping).
While consumer goods logistics is facing a correction, there is a sunnier outlook for aviation which is benefiting from pent-up travel demand, while public transport is turning busier again as well.
The transport and logistics sector will see growth of 4% in 2023 and 3% in 2024.
While the extremes of the Covid-19 pandemic supply shock have faded, the sector is still witnessing the ripple effects of normalisation in consumer behaviour and prolonged capacity issues. At the same time, the economy is slowing and industrial production is slumping.
The supply shock from the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine have also left their mark on various parts of the transport and logistics sector. Either long because of excess capacity after a historic boom (in container shipping) or short because of lagging deliveries of aircraft and capacity-absorbing rerouting because of sanctions (in shipping).
While consumer goods logistics is facing a correction, there is a sunnier outlook for aviation which is benefiting from pent-up travel demand, while public transport is turning busier again as well.
This piece provides an overview of the transport and logistics sector. We discuss shipping, container shipping and aviation in more detail in our full outlook here