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Concerns over surging oil prices rise for central banks

Life for the European Central Bank has become even more complicated as surging oil prices add to the trilemma of how to balance slowing economies, the delayed impact of the rate hikes so far and still too-high inflation

Central banks are having to think about what rising oil prices mean for future interest rate decisions

Surging oil prices have become the new concern for central banks, aggravating the current trilemma: how to balance slowing economies, still too-high inflation and the delayed impact of unprecedented rate hikes. Interestingly, the answer to this conundrum differs between major central banks.

Looking ahead, the recent surge in oil prices will make things even more complicated as it will both worsen the economic slowdown but also push up inflation (or at least reduce the disinflationary trend). Balancing growth and inflation will become even harder and future interest rate decisions will not only be determined by these two variables but also by central banks’ credibility.

In this regard, central banks most concerned about their credibility and the longer-term impact on inflation expectations could end up continuing to hike interest rates. The full article from our team takes a closer look into the eurozone and the ECB