(No) turbulence ahead? The aviation industry in 2026

Worldwide, the aviation industry secures millions of jobs along complex value chains – from airports to suppliers to tourism providers. It is both a location and an economic factor. In 2023 alone, the total economic contribution of commercial aviation was around 3.5 percent of global GDP, according to the industry association IATA. For export-oriented industries and internationally networked companies, a functioning air traffic infrastructure remains elementary. However, the industry is also facing significant challenges: Despite rising passenger numbers and economic recovery after the pandemic, structural problems, delayed deliveries of new aircraft and climate targets are slowing down the industry. Not only 2026, but also the coming years are therefore likely to be challenging.

Delivery delays and aging fleets, but light at the end of the tunnel

On the positive side, passenger numbers are steadily increasing. In Europe, with the exception of Germany, they have even exceeded the highs of 2019 by now. And the projections also see a significant increase in air traffic in the future. However, the industry is currently unable to keep up with the pace. The demand for new aircrafts significantly exceeds supply. In May 2025, Airbus reported an order backlog of 8,617 aircrafts, almost 89 percent of which were so-called narrowbodies of the A220 and A320neo families. Boeing recorded 6,528 open orders, over 74 percent of which were for the 737 MAX series. Meanwhile, the analytics company Cirium estimates global demand for around 46,000 machines over the next 20 years. 

The reasons for this are complex: On the one hand, there are only two serious major manufacturers of medium- and long-haul aircraft, Airbus and Boeing – the production capacities of the two companies are not sufficient to supply the global market. On the other hand, aircraft production came to a complete standstill at times during the Corona pandemic, and the backlog has not be fully made up in the following years. These production backlogs are now being met with long delivery times due to full order books and are putting additional strain on the industry. It is therefore estimated that the current gap includes about 5,000 aircraft that have not been delivered. They are missing for the expansion of the fleets and the necessary renewal.

In addition, technical problems and a global shortage of skilled workers are weighing on the resumption of full production volume. One example is Boeing: The company was only allowed to deliver a strictly limited number of new aircraft at times due to quality problems. Airbus, on the other hand, is currently suffering from problems with the engines in its new generations of aircraft. The consequences are clearly noticeable: airlines are responding with extended leasing contracts – 11 percent more contracts were renewed in 2024 than in 2018 – and keeping older aircraft in service longer. The average age of the global passenger fleet rose from 9.7 years (2018) to 11.3 years (2024).

This also increases the need for maintenance, which, however, cannot simply be absorbed due to the ongoing shortage of skilled workers. As a result, problems with engines and longer turnaround times in maintenance are forcing airlines to take additional aircrafts out of service – a serious blow when capacities are already scarce.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel: Despite all the problems, Airbus and Boeing are currently succeeding in ramping up their production.

Sustainability: Between aspiration and reality

In addition to the lack of capacity, the increase in passenger numbers also leads to another problem for the aviation industry: the achievement of the sustainability goals. With growing public and regulatory pressure, the decarbonization of aviation is becoming a decisive factor for its future viability. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the sector accounted for around 2.5 percent of global energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2023. But the industry is already finding it difficult to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The expected increase in air traffic is likely to exceed the expected savings in emissions. Unfortunately, no improvement is to be expected in the short term.

A number of reasons are also decisive for this: The long service life of aircraft – around 25 years on average – means that fleet decisions made today will determine the CO₂ footprint of the coming decades. At the same time, experts agree that no further increases in efficiency are possible with the currently available technology. Instead, completely new technologies are needed to reduce emissions. However, the time and capital required to develop new concepts is considerable. Even the further development of existing models needs billions. Completely new developments with alternative drives – such as hydrogen or hybrid concepts – will not be ready for the market for years to come. Compared to other means of transport, aviation is also more complex. Battery solutions such as those used in local transport, for example, are not technically feasible. New technologies also first require the appropriate infrastructure. For example, hydrogen must be refueled and stored at high pressure. At many airports, this is not possible at all, not least because the strict security criteria stand in the way. In addition, green hydrogen is scarce and expensive in many regions.

Sustainable Aviation Fuels on hold

The greatest hopes for reducing greenhouse gas emissions therefore rest on Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF). Although these release CO₂ when burned, they are much more sustainable along their value chain, especially when using bio- or synthetic raw materials. Accordingly, the EU has prescribed a mandatory SAF quota of two percent for all flights departing from European airports. It is to rise to six percent by 2030 and 70 percent by 2050. However, the availability of SAF is still low, as demand far exceeds supply. However, if all planned capacities are realized as expected, they should be sufficient to meet the necessary demand and meet the 2030 targets. European airlines have so far taken a leading role in the introduction of SAF. The question of cost remains unresolved: SAF is up to four times more expensive than conventional kerosene. Fuel accounts for 20 to 35 percent of the total costs of many airlines – a significant price premium, for which it is not clear to what extent airlines can pass on the price increases to customers.

After all, the industry has a high degree of recycling. Almost all components of an aircraft – from the turbine to the cabin equipment – are recyclable. In combination with the long service life of the aircraft, this significantly increases resource efficiency.

Industry facing ambitious balancing act

The aviation industry is confronted with a complex field of tension: demand is increasing, but supply bottlenecks and the pressure to decarbonize continue. The industry faces the challenge of investing in capacity building, technology development and sustainability at the same time. In an economically volatile environment, this is an ambitious balancing act.

In Germany in particular, the industry is under pressure, as there is a lack of political tailwind and high taxes and fees burden companies. If the sustainable restructuring of the industry is to succeed, a new interaction between industry, politics and research is needed.

Only if these levers are pulled together can the industry secure its economic importance and at the same time make a credible contribution to climate protection. The coming years will be decisive as to whether aviation makes the leap into a new era – or remains trapped in old structures.

Society is transitioning to a low-carbon economy. So are our clients, and so is ING. We finance a lot of sustainable activities, but we still finance more that’s not. See how we’re progressing on ing.com/climate.