The economic effects of Russian sanctions

The effect of the ban on Western food products by Russia has put downward pressure on EU exports to Russia. Directly through the loss of food exports to Russia and indirectly through EU companies that are suppliers of inputs and services to the food companies that export to Russia.

On the macro level the maximum effect on EU GDP will be small (0.04% of GDP: €6,7 bln per year). The maximum effect on EU employment will also be small: -0,06% (130.000 jobs). 

Also for the Netherlands the macro effect is limited but bigger than for the EU area as a whole. The maximum GDP effect is almost 0,1% GDP (€563 mln) and the employment effect is -0,08% (6,600 jobs).

Although the macro consequences are small, the production and employment losses are more significantly felt in the sectors that are primarily hit by the sanctions. The maximum employment loss in agriculture and fishing is 2,400 jobs (-2,3%). But also in the business services sector and renting of machinery and equipment 740 jobs (-0,9%) are at stake if the ban continues for a long time and insufficient substitutes for the Russian markets are found.