Election upsets, who’s next?

You’d be forgiven for thinking it’s election season in Europe. British people will go back to the polls in June after a snap general election was announced just after Easter.

We’ll have a new French President before we get that result, and Germans go to the polls in September. The big question: Are we about to see yet more electoral upsets after a turbulent 2016?

It’s entirely possible. In the past year, election upsets seem to have become the norm, just look at President Trump’s victory in the States or Britain’s 'Brexit' vote to leave the EU. Factors such as globalisation, European institutions, immigration and integration were key themes in most of those votes and they’re still prominent in many people’s minds.

The populist vote commands a substantial share in opinion polls, notably in France and Italy. In this report, by ING’s senior economist, Bert Colijn, we look at what factors are at play and which countries could be ripe for a similar electoral shock. We look at why voters in various countries are turning away from traditional political parties and to what extent their economic situation is influencing their decision.