ING’s expertise on commodity markets valued in Dutch press

ING’s commodity experts are being quoted in the Dutch financial press and two recent articles on the latest meeting of OPEC member countries underscores the value of our expertise.

One of the articles on the front page of DFT is a direct benefit of a previous background conversation with the newspaper. Warren Patterson, commodity strategist at ING Financial Markets Global Markets Research is one of four experts quoted in an article in the 25 September edition of ‘DeTelegraaf’ (‘Oil market demands interventions’) on the OPEC’s three-day meeting in Algeria.

The newspaper concludes on ING’s expertise: while other experts are looking at the immediate situation in the oil market, ING is looking further down the line.

Patterson: “If there’s a production freeze, then oil prices are likely to increase for a bit. However, fundamentally little will change.” Patterson’s view is supported by the International Energy Agency, which forecasts an oil surplus in the market until the first half of 2017. As Patterson notes, “this won’t put pressure on prices in the longer term.” Patterson is also quoted on US oil producers, who have made a return to the market despite the low oil prices. “Their costs have fallen and there are 100 more drilling platforms since May,” he says. “These companies use more efficient techniques,” Patterson continues. “The more companies that do that, the lower the costs.” This will see even more oil flooding the market, the item notes.

Patterson is also prominently quoted in an article in the 26 September edition of ‘Het Financieele Dagblad’ (‘Market says little chance of ‘oil agreement’ in Algeria’). The strategist says that “an agreement in Algeria is now the biggest risk of causing a shock on the oil market. Nobody is expecting an agreement, so prices would skyrocket if one were to be made.” The item notes that 23 other analysts polled by Bloomberg agree with Patterson – only two believe OPEC will reach an agreement.

Patterson is also quoted on Saudi Arabia’s strategy, i.e. choosing market share over a higher price. He sees no reason for OPEC’s most important member to change strategy in the current market environment. He also talks about the comments on production limits made by OPEC member countries, saying that these should be viewed as “verbal interventions”. “The price of oil generally rises after these comments are made, albeit briefly,” Patterson adds.